The Impact of HPAI A(H5N1) Bird Flu Outbreak in Dairy Cows on Livestock Futures

The recent outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (HPAI A(H5N1)) in dairy cows marks a significant and unprecedented event in animal health. First reported on March 25, 2024, this is the first instance of HPAI A(H5N1) affecting cattle, previously known primarily as a bird flu affecting poultry species. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed a human infection linked to exposure to these infected dairy cattle in Texas, intensifying concerns about the zoonotic potential of this strain. This event’s implications on livestock futures are profound, echoing past disruptions caused by animal disease outbreaks but presenting unique challenges due to the novel host species and the scale of the outbreak.

Immediate Impact on Cattle Futures

The discovery of HPAI A(H5N1) in dairy cows has direct implications for cattle futures trading on commodity exchanges such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Historically, the emergence of a significant disease in livestock populations leads to immediate volatility in futures prices due to anticipated disruptions in supply and changes in consumer behavior. For instance, during the BSE (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy) crisis in the early 2000s, cattle futures experienced significant drops as countries imposed import bans on British beef, which created uncertainty and led to a global reassessment of beef safety.

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In the present scenario, the primary concerns include:

• Supply Disruptions: Quarantines and culling of infected or exposed animals reduce the immediate supply of dairy and possibly beef products if the disease affects broader cattle populations.
• Demand Fluctuations: Public fear of contracting the disease can lead to decreased demand for beef and dairy products, even though HPAI A(H5N1) primarily spreads from animal to animal and not typically through food consumption.
• Regulatory Actions: Increased costs for cattle farmers and dairy producers are likely as new regulations and biosecurity measures are implemented to control the spread of the disease.

Examples from Past Outbreaks

Examining past outbreaks provides insights into potential market reactions and long-term considerations:

• 2003 BSE Outbreak in the US: When the first case of BSE was discovered in Washington state, beef exports from the US plummeted as over 30 countries, including major markets like Japan and South Korea, immediately banned American beef. Futures prices for live cattle dropped sharply due to the sudden fall in export demand.
• 2014-2015 Avian Influenza Outbreak: Although this outbreak primarily affected poultry, it led to the destruction of millions of birds, severely disrupting poultry markets and associated grain futures due to reduced feed demand. Similar widespread culling in cattle could lead to significant market adjustments.

Long-Term Considerations

The long-term impact on cattle futures will depend on several factors:

• Eradication and Control Measures: The effectiveness of measures to control the outbreak will play a crucial role in restoring market stability. Successful containment can lead to a quicker recovery in futures prices, while ongoing issues could lead to sustained market depression.
• Consumer Confidence: How quickly consumer confidence in beef and dairy safety can be restored influences demand recovery. Historical evidence shows that recovery can be slow, as seen with the prolonged impact of BSE on European beef consumption.
• Global Trade: International responses, including trade restrictions imposed by importing countries, can exacerbate the impact on futures. For cattle producers reliant on export markets, these restrictions could have severe financial implications.

Trading Strategies

Traders might consider several strategies in response to the outbreak:

• Short Selling: Anticipating a drop in cattle futures, traders might take short positions to capitalize on falling prices.
• Options for Hedging: Purchasing options can provide traders protection against their positions’ downside risk, particularly in such volatile conditions.
• Diversification: Traders might look to diversify their portfolios to mitigate risks associated with a focus on cattle futures.

The outbreak of HPAI A(H5N1) in dairy cows represents a novel and serious challenge to the livestock industry, with significant implications for cattle futures. Drawing from past experiences with livestock diseases, the market is likely to face periods of volatility and uncertainty. Traders must remain vigilant, responsive to new information, and consider strategic positions that account for both immediate impacts and longer-term market adjustments.

Ready to start trading futures? Call US 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 email info@cannontrading.com and speak to one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and start your futures trading journey with E-Futures.com today.

Disclaimer – Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this writing are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. This writing is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. 

**This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology. It has been modified from the original draft for accuracy and compliance.

***@cannontrading on all socials.

Introduction to Precious Metals Trading

Precious metals, namely gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, constitute a vital component of the global financial markets, offering a variety of trading instruments. These commodities are not only closely correlated with one another but also display distinct price drivers, creating a fertile ground for spread trading. This type of trading takes advantage of price discrepancies between different instruments, and when applied to the precious metals market, can yield substantial opportunities for traders.

The Fundamentals of Spread Trading

Spread trading involves simultaneously buying and selling two related securities whose prices are expected to diverge or converge in the future. In the context of precious metals, this could mean buying gold futures and selling platinum futures, betting on changes in their relative prices. This strategy is favored by traders due to its potential for reduced risk, as losses in one position can be offset by gains in another.

The Role of Precious Metals in Financial Markets

Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium each play unique roles in financial markets. Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, typically appreciating during times of economic uncertainty. Silver, while also a safe haven, has extensive industrial applications, linking its price more closely to economic cycles. Platinum and palladium are crucial in industrial applications, particularly in the automotive industry, where they are used for manufacturing catalytic converters. The diverse uses and economic sensitivities of these metals provide a basis for spread trading, as traders can speculate on shifts in their relative valuations based on economic changes.

Trading Platforms and Instruments

E-Futures International offers a robust platform for trading futures on precious metals, providing traders with a highly liquid market that allows for efficient execution of trading strategies. These futures markets are beneficial for spread trading because they offer deep market liquidity and the advantages of central clearing. Central clearing mitigates the counterparty risk and offers significant margin savings, as trades are cleared through CME Clearing. This setup also reduces the legging risk, where one side of the spread trade might fail to execute promptly.

Over 90% of these futures contracts are traded electronically on the CME Globex ensuring easy access for traders worldwide and enabling high-quality trade executions nearly 24 hours a day. This nearly round-the-clock trading window is crucial for managing risks and taking advantage of global economic events as they unfold.

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The Specifics of Futures Gold-Platinum Spread Trading

Gold and platinum are particularly interesting for spread traders. The Gold-Platinum spread, for instance, reflects the relative scarcity, demand, and industrial utility of these metals. Traditionally, platinum has been priced higher than gold, but economic shifts and changes in industrial demand can reverse this trend, as seen in recent years.

Spread traders in this market might look for historical data and economic indicators that suggest a narrowing or widening of this spread. Factors such as changes in the automotive industry, which heavily utilizes platinum, or shifts in investment demand for gold, can signal opportunities for spread trades.

Advantages of Spread Trading in Precious Metals Futures

Spread trading offers several advantages over outright futures trading:

1. Capital Efficiency: By taking offsetting positions, spread traders can often enjoy lower margin requirements, as the risk is perceived to be lower than that of a single outright position.
2. Risk Management: Spread trading can offer superior risk-adjusted returns. Since the strategy involves both a long and a short position, the overall portfolio volatility can be lower, protecting against market swings.
3. Diversification: Engaging in spread trades across different metals allows traders to benefit from a diverse range of economic factors affecting these commodities differently.

Challenges and Considerations

Despite its benefits, spread trading in precious metals is not without challenges. The effectiveness of a spread trading strategy can be heavily dependent on the trader’s ability to forecast relative movements in the prices of the metals involved. Furthermore, economic volatility can unexpectedly alter the correlation between these commodities, potentially leading to significant losses.

Spread trading in precious metals offers traders a sophisticated method to capitalize on the unique characteristics of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. By understanding the economic factors that drive the prices of these metals and utilizing the advanced trading instruments available on platforms like the CME Group, traders can execute strategies that maximize returns while managing risk. As with any trading strategy, success in spread trading requires a deep understanding of market dynamics and a disciplined approach to risk management.

Ready to start trading futures? Call US 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 email info@cannontrading.com and speak to one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and start your futures trading journey with E-Futures.com today.

Disclaimer – Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this writing are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. This writing is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. 

**This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology. It has been modified from the original draft for accuracy and compliance.

***@cannontrading on all socials.

The grain markets include several key futures contracts, each with specific contract sizes. Here are the primary ones:

1. Wheat Futures: Commonly traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the standard contract size is 5,000 bushels.
2. Corn Futures: Also traded on the CBOT, corn futures contracts are standardized at 5,000 bushels per contract.
3. Soybean Futures: These are traded on the CBOT with a contract size of 5,000 bushels.
4. Soybean Meal Futures: Traded in terms of 100 short tons per contract, these are also found on the CBOT.
5. Soybean Oil Futures: These contracts are denominated in 60,000 pounds (approximately 27 metric tons) and traded on the CBOT.
6. Oats Futures: Like the others, oats futures are traded on the CBOT with a contract size of 5,000 bushels.

These futures contracts allow traders and investors to hedge against price movements in the grain markets, speculating on or securing prices for future deliveries of these commodities.

The summary of the CME® 2024 Grain Report is below.

Hedgers should be aware of this report:

Prospects of Russia Producing a Record Wheat Crop for a Third Year in 2024

The establishment of the Black Sea export corridor in the summer of 2022 was a turning point for the declining wheat prices. Despite the onset of war risks in spring 2022, a noteworthy backdrop was Russia’s wheat production, which reportedly reached between 100 and 102 million tons. This high output continued into 2023 with another 92 million tons, signaling an oversupply in the Russian wheat market.

Sanctions and elevated insurance costs further complicated the situation. However, amidst the first land war in Europe in over seventy years, wheat prices in Ukraine and Russia remained competitive. Since the summer of 2022, Russian wheat has consistently been priced as the most affordable option, with exporters actively reducing inventories.

This year, for the first time in two seasons, the weather in Russia is less than favorable, with key winter wheat regions in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia receiving only 10% to 30% of their usual precipitation. The weather in May and early June, crucial for determining the yield, presents a different pattern than in previous years. A potential decrease in Russian wheat output, which could range from 85 to 93 million tons in 2024, would be significant, especially as the European Commission predicts a 5 million ton decrease in European wheat production due to reduced planting areas.

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Uncertainty Surrounding South American Corn Production

Brazil stood as the world’s largest corn exporter in 2023. Together, Argentina and Brazil account for 40% of the global corn trade, a significant increase from 30% in 2010. This shift has diminished the U.S.’s influence in the global market. This year, discrepancies in production estimates between the USDA and South American agencies like CONAB and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange have widened, leaving the potential expansion or contraction of the world’s corn surplus in 2024 uncertain.

Impact of La Niña on Global Weather Patterns

As the La Niña phenomenon returns, replacing the current El Niño, it threatens to disrupt rainfall patterns and yields, particularly in the southern U.S. The transition to La Niña is expected to occur swiftly by mid-2024, potentially complicating long-term climate forecasts and impacting Northern Hemisphere summer weather.

Currency Dynamics and Agricultural Trade

The strong U.S. dollar has played a critical role in shaping agricultural market dynamics, correlating with bearish trends in major grain markets. With ongoing interest rate hikes, speculative activity in the agricultural sector remains limited. The future of the U.S. dollar as the dominant trade currency appears secure, though concerns about the growing U.S. national debt, projected to reach $34.6 trillion in 2024, could influence Federal Reserve policies.

Mexico’s Increasing Dependence on Corn Imports

Mexico is expected to boost its corn imports by 9% in the 23/24 crop year, driven by consecutive drought years. With ending stocks projected to cover only 18 days of consumption by September 2024, Mexico’s demand for imported corn is likely to continue rising, further influencing global corn trade dynamics.

In conclusion, the grain market in 2024 is poised to be largely influenced by weather conditions and geopolitical factors, with ongoing adjustments in market risk assessments expected from June onwards.

Ready to start trading futures? Call US 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 email info@cannontrading.com and speak to one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and start your futures trading journey with E-Futures.com today.

Disclaimer – Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this writing are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. This writing is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. 

**This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology. It has been modified from the original draft for accuracy and compliance.

***@cannontrading on all socials.

Commodity spread trading is a sophisticated strategy used in financial markets, particularly in commodities trading. It involves taking positions in multiple related commodities or futures contracts simultaneously to profit from the price difference between them. This strategy is based on the idea that the price relationship between different commodities or contract months can be predicted and exploited for profit.

The term “commodity spread trading” encompasses several related concepts such as trading commodity spreads, commodity spreading, commodity futures spreading, futures spreading, futures trading, and commodity trading. These terms all refer to the practice of buying and selling related commodities or futures contracts with the expectation of profiting from changes in their relative prices.

What is Commodity Spread Trading?

Commodity spread trading relies on the analysis of supply and demand factors, seasonal trends, geopolitical events, and other market dynamics that can influence the prices of commodities. Traders who engage in spread trading aim to capitalize on the price differentials between two or more commodities or futures contracts. These price differentials can arise due to various reasons, including differences in production costs, storage costs, transportation costs, market sentiment, and macroeconomic factors.

Spread trading can be classified into two main categories:

• Inter-commodity spreads: This involves trading the price differential between two different but related commodities. For example, a trader might buy soybean futures and sell corn futures if they expect the price of soybeans to increase relative to corn.
• Intra-commodity spreads: This involves trading the price differential between different contract months of the same commodity. For instance, a trader might buy crude oil futures for delivery in June and sell crude oil futures for delivery in September if they anticipate a tightening supply-demand situation in the near term.

Examples of Commodity Spread Trading

Energy Sector

In the energy sector, commodity spread trading is prevalent due to the diversity of energy commodities and their interconnectedness. Here are a few examples of energy spread trading strategies:

• Crude Oil Spreads: A trader might use the crack spread strategy, which involves buying crude oil futures and simultaneously selling refined petroleum product futures (such as gasoline or heating oil futures). This spread trade capitalizes on the refining margin between crude oil and its refined products.
• Natural Gas Spreads: Traders might engage in natural gas spread trading by taking positions in different delivery months of natural gas futures contracts. For instance, a trader might buy natural gas futures for delivery in winter months (when demand is high) and sell natural gas futures for delivery in summer months (when demand is low).

Grains Sector

The grains sector offers numerous opportunities for spread trading, especially considering the seasonal nature of agricultural commodities. Here are some examples:

• Corn vs. Wheat Spreads: Traders might trade the price differential between corn and wheat futures contracts. For instance, if corn prices are expected to rise faster than wheat prices due to weather conditions or demand-supply dynamics, a trader might buy corn futures and simultaneously sell wheat futures.
• Nearby vs. Deferred Corn Spreads: Traders can also trade the price differential between nearby (current month) and deferred (future month) corn futures contracts. This strategy takes into account factors such as crop progress, weather forecasts, and market expectations.

Precious Metals Sector

Commodity spread trading is also common in the precious metals sector, where traders focus on price differentials between different metals or contract months. Examples include:

• Gold vs. Silver Spreads: Traders might trade the price relationship between gold and silver futures contracts. This spread trade can be based on factors such as industrial demand, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic trends.
• Nearby vs. Deferred Gold Spreads: Traders can take positions in nearby and deferred gold futures contracts to profit from changes in market expectations, interest rates, and geopolitical events.

Soft Commodities

Soft commodities, such as agricultural products, also offer opportunities for spread trading based on seasonal patterns and supply-demand dynamics. Examples include:

• Coffee vs. Cocoa Spreads: Traders might trade the price differential between coffee and cocoa futures contracts. This spread trade can be influenced by factors such as weather conditions, crop cycles, and global demand trends.
• Nearby vs. Deferred Soybean Spreads: Traders can take positions in nearby and deferred soybean futures contracts to capitalize on seasonal trends, crop progress reports, and trade policy developments.

Benefits and Risks of Commodity Spread Trading

Commodity spread trading offers several potential benefits for traders:

• Risk Management: Spread trading can help reduce overall market risk by offsetting positions in one commodity with positions in another related commodity. This can be particularly useful in volatile markets.
• Profit Opportunities: By correctly predicting price differentials between commodities or contract months, traders can generate profits regardless of the direction of the overall market.
• Diversification: Spread trading allows traders to diversify their portfolios beyond individual commodities, potentially reducing exposure to specific market risks.

However, spread trading also carries certain risks:

• Execution Risk: Timing and execution are critical in spread trading, and delays or errors in order placement can impact profitability.
• Market Risk: While spread trading can reduce some types of risk, traders are still exposed to market risk, including price fluctuations, liquidity issues, and unexpected events.
• Margin Requirements: Spread trading often involves margin requirements, and traders need to manage their margin levels carefully to avoid margin calls and potential liquidation of positions.

Commodity spread trading is a complex but potentially rewarding strategy used by traders in various sectors, including energy, grains, precious metals, and soft commodities. By analyzing price differentials between related commodities or contract months, spread traders aim to profit from market inefficiencies, seasonal trends, and supply-demand dynamics. While spread trading offers benefits such as risk management, profit opportunities, and diversification, traders should also be aware of the inherent risks and challenges associated with this strategy. Effective risk management, thorough analysis, and disciplined execution are essential for success in commodity spread trading.

Ready to start trading futures? Call US 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 email info@cannontrading.com and speak to one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and start your futures trading journey with E-Futures.com today.

Disclaimer – Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this writing are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. This writing is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. 

**This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology. It has been modified from the original draft for accuracy and compliance.

***@cannontrading on all socials.

Hedging with crude oil futures and options on futures is a sophisticated risk management strategy employed by market participants to protect against adverse price movements in the oil market. This strategy is particularly crucial given the volatile nature of crude oil prices, which can be influenced by supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and global economic conditions. In this discussion, we’ll delve into the concept of hedging with crude oil futures and options on futures, explore the role of a futures brokerage firm like E-Futures.com, and examine examples of hedging techniques in the oil market.

Hedging with Crude Oil Futures

Hedging with crude oil futures involves taking positions in futures contracts to offset the risk of adverse price movements in the physical oil market. This strategy is commonly used by oil producers, consumers, refiners, and speculators to manage their exposure to oil price fluctuations.

Options on Futures

Options on futures add another layer of flexibility to hedging strategies. These derivatives give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a futures contract at a predetermined price (strike price) on or before a specified date (expiration date). By incorporating options on futures into hedging strategies, market participants can tailor their risk management approach to their specific needs and market expectations.

A Futures Brokerage Firm like E-Futures.com

E-Futures.com is a top-rated futures brokerage firm known for its expertise in futures trading and hedging techniques. The firm’s experienced futures brokers provide valuable insights, market analysis, and execution services to help clients navigate the complexities of the futures market, including crude oil futures and options on futures.

Key services offered by E-Futures.com include:

Market Research and Analysis: E-Futures.com provides in-depth market research and analysis, including fundamental and technical analysis of crude oil prices and related market factors. This information helps clients make informed hedging decisions.

Risk Management Strategies: The firm’s futures brokers work closely with clients to develop customized risk management strategies, including hedging with crude oil futures and options on futures. These strategies aim to protect against downside risk while allowing for potential upside participation.

Execution Services: E-Futures.com offers efficient and reliable execution services for futures and options trades. Clients can execute hedging transactions seamlessly through the firm’s trading platform, taking advantage of competitive pricing and liquidity.

Educational Resources: E-Futures.com provides educational resources, webinars, and seminars to help clients understand hedging concepts, trading strategies, and market dynamics. This knowledge empowers clients to make more informed hedging decisions.

Examples of Hedging Techniques with Crude Oil Futures and Options on Futures

1. Long Hedge for Producers:

1. • Scenario: An oil producer expects to deliver a certain quantity of crude oil in three months but is concerned about potential price declines.
   • Hedging Strategy:

1. • • Crude Oil Futures: The producer enters into a long futures position to lock in the current price for delivery in three months.
     • Options on Futures: To enhance flexibility, the producer buys call options on crude oil futures. If prices rise above the strike price by expiration, the producer can exercise the options to offset any losses on the short futures position.

1. • Outcome:

1. • • If prices rise, the producer benefits from the long futures position and can exercise the call options for additional gains.
     • If prices fall, the losses on the short futures position are offset by gains on the call options, limiting downside risk.

1. Short Hedge for Consumers:

1. • Scenario: An airline company anticipates purchasing a significant amount of jet fuel in six months but is concerned about potential price increases.
   • Hedging Strategy:

1. • • Crude Oil Futures: The airline enters into a short futures position to lock in the current selling price for purchasing jet fuel in six months.
     • Options on Futures: To manage upside risk, the airline purchases put options on crude oil futures. If prices fall below the strike price by expiration, the airline can exercise the options to offset any losses on the long futures position.

1. • Outcome:

1. • • If prices fall, the gains on the short futures position offset losses on the put options, resulting in a lower purchasing cost for jet fuel.
     • If prices rise, the losses on the short futures position are limited by gains on the put options, mitigating the impact of price increases.

Hedging with crude oil futures and options on futures is a vital risk management strategy for participants in the oil market, given the inherent volatility and uncertainty. Futures brokerage firms like E-Futures.com play a crucial role in providing expertise, execution services, and educational resources to help clients effectively hedge their exposure to oil price fluctuations.

By understanding hedging concepts, utilizing options on futures, and working with experienced futures brokers, market participants can navigate the complexities of the oil market with greater confidence and resilience against adverse price movements. Effective hedging strategies not only protect against downside risk but also provide opportunities to capitalize on market opportunities and enhance overall portfolio performance.

Ready to start trading futures? Call US 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 email info@cannontrading.com and speak to one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and start your futures trading journey with E-Futures.com today.

Disclaimer – Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this writing are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. This writing is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results. 

**This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology. It has been modified from the original draft for accuracy and compliance.

***@cannontrading on all socials.